Mid-week football during the holiday season is the gift that keeps on giving. For the UEFA Champions League, the gift is a realization that even if they put the crappiest teams of the tournament in their own window, gamblers will probably watch it and want to place a little wager on it.
Two match-ups this week, while still the best of the bunch, have dark clouds circling the form of two teams that were expected to dominate. While Liverpool and Real Madrid are performing far below their potential, their opponents this round won’t be sending them condolences.
Five bets below to keep your mornings, afternoons, and evenings just that much more interesting. Let’s jump in.
December 9th – 7:30 am Window
Kairat Handicap +1 (+107)
It was kind of the UEFA schedulers to add an extra betting window for us in Round 6. Unfortunately, the game features two teams desperately hoping to secure a single win during their time in this tournament. I know that there is probably more to this, but Kairat at home getting a goal at plus money seems like a good way to keep this window interesting.
Kairat was 3-0-0 at home in the UCL qualification rounds, and this game has more of that feel than an actual UCL game. Olympiakos did score three goals against Real Madrid last time out, so keep that in the back of your mind. However, this one feels like it should end in a draw, keeping these teams wishing for that elusive win.
December 9th – 9:45 am Window
Bayern Munich/Sporting CP – Total Corners Under 9.5 (-115)
Both Sporting and Bayern Munich are keeping the ball away from the backline in the UCL. Sporting’s matches have gone over 9.5 total corners only once this campaign, in a game against Kairat, when the Lions had over 60% possession.
Bayern will dominate possession in this one, so Sporting adding a chunk to this total shouldn’t be too much of a concern. Bayern, which has only tallied over 9.5 total corners in two of its five UCL matches, is also only averaging 4.6 corners over its last five.
Sporting will try with all its might to keep everything in front of them in this one for as long as possible. With all hands on deck protecting the backline, corners should be pretty tough to come by.
December 9th – 12:00 pm Window
Tottenham Hotspur – Team Total Over 2.0 (-105)
As a Hotspur fan, it seems partially insane to bet on the Lilywhites to score over two goals, especially since only three times in EPL play have Spurs scored more than two goals. Strangely enough, they have done so in two straight UCL matches.
Which is the trend to follow? Probably neither! So, Buyers beware because this wager is a mixture of hope and wave riding.
Spurs’ offense finally showed signs of life against Brentford over the weekend, and fans are desperately praying to any deity that will listen that Xavi Simons’ life-injecting performance was just the beginning of everything they hoped when he signed.
Like most big waves, a silent undertow builds below the surface, waiting to gather enough steam and power to break towards the shore. The signs of big waves are starting to form for Tottenham, and now could be a good time to paddle out to catch the incoming scoring wave.
December 10th – 9:45 am Window
Ajax – Corners Handicap -1 (+180)
Qarabag has yet to win a corner battle in the main UCL tournament, losing all five by at least two corners. Their UCL corner woes actually stem back to their last UCL qualification games, where they lost the corner battle twice to Ferencváros despite winning the more important battle of qualifying for the main tournament.
Ajax’s overall tournament thus far has been horrendous. But the one thing the Sons of the Gods got going for them is corners. Ranking 15th in the tournament with 23 corners, Ajax’s road corner battles in the UCL are a weird bag of inconsistency, losing 0-11 to Chelsea and beating Olympique Marseille 7-0. With Qarabag trending downward in this categorical catfight, Ajax winning this category by more than one is hardly far-fetched and probably more likely than where the books have it.
December 10th – 12:00 pm Window
Manchester City – 3-Way Moneyline (+161)
This is by far the most titillating matchup on the docket for this round. I think it’s about time that we get to bet on a UCL matchup between two top-notch football squads. And this one is going to be a doozy!
On the surface, these teams are riding two different parts of the same roller coasters at the moment. Man City, which was struggling to find consistency to begin the season, found the switch sometime in late October and flipped it emphatically, gobbling up 21 of a possible 27 points across all competitions.
Real Madrid, despite the obvious talent oozing from its roster, has managed only nine points over its last seven games across all competitions.A surprise loss to Celta de Vigo over the weekend has backers wondering whether Real Madrid can even hang with Man City at this point.
Oddly enough, books are leaning a bit heavily towards Real Madrid without much to warrant it, other than the fact that Xavi has to right this ship eventually…right?
But a red-hot City has to be more than a 38% chance of coming away with a victory, a value worthy of a sprinkle bet at the very least.
English Premier League Picks (W-L-D)
· Matchweek 9: 2-4
· Matchweek 10: 3-3
· Matchweek 11: 2-3-1
· Matchweek 12: 2-2-2
Overall Record: 9-12-3
UEFA Champions League Picks
· Round 3: 1-3
· Round 4: 1-3
· Round 5: 2-2
Overall Record: 4-8
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