As the International Break stalled progress in the MLS table, the odds for conference winners have stayed stagnant as well. Because of this, now is a better time than any to debut some data I have been gathering on odds to win the MLS Golden Boot.
Picking out a Golden Boot winner requires pinpointing a player who knows when to put all he has into a shot. But the player sitting atop the goal-scoring list a handful of weeks into a season can easily fall off because of crummy form, injury, or a combination of both. The instability of goal production makes this truly one of the more difficult futures to pick, as late surges from unexpected players can often usurp the favorites.
Over the past ten seasons, only three preseason favorites have had the endurance to finally take home the Golden Boot at the end of the campaign, with Lionel Messi being the most recent to do so last season. Messi has been the preseason favorite to earn this honor for three consecutive seasons, but achieving it in back-to-back years almost seems impossible. Still, Messi is known for accomplishing what many believe to be just that.
Yes, Sur-ridge!
With Sam Surridge sniping goal-after-goal to kick off the season, it only took five weeks for the preseason favorite to succumb to this sharpshooter lying in wait. Sitting three spots behind the Argentine in the preseason polls, Surridge steadily climbed the IWP rankings with every passing brace. His hat trick against Orlando City was enough to propel the Englishman past Messi and into the pole position emerging out of the international break. A “break” where Messi had to country duties, while Surridge had to find a way to maintain his freshness.
Despite finishing five goals behind Messi last year in this race, Surridge has built a nice lead on the now second favorite in this category and will look to get hot in May like he did last season. An elongated break, thanks to the World Cup, where Surridge will again need to find ways to stay fresh, and where Messi will need to find a way to evade injury and overall fatigue to make this a race, should wreak havoc on any models trying to predict this outcome.
Because of the factors just mentioned, I believe Messi will have a very difficult time repeating as the MLS Golden Boot champion, especially if Surridge can maintain his unbelievable form.
Musa’s Meteoric Move
Another player making significant moves over the past five weeks is Petar Musa, who has scored six goals in five MLS games this season, a bit of a surprise for a forward who started the season 8th in the IWP MLS Golden Boot rankings. A hat-trick against San Diego FC pushed him far up this list, but another goal in only 45 minutes against Houston Dynamo helped lift the Croatian up to the third most likely candidate to lift the Golden Boot.
However, Musa, who received 75 minutes of playing time over the break for Croatia, is in the same boat as Messi. Will he have the stamina to continue the goal-scoring form, or will his packed schedule eventually wither this bet’s chance away like ice in the summer heat?
After being considered viable dark horses to win this title, both Heung-Min Son and Andres Dreyer saw some massive dips in IWP, dropping to 7th and 10th place, respectively. Their chances of even trying to challenge for this achievement reduced significantly, that is, unless goals pour out of these two heading into the World Cup intermission.
Who’s Getting Lucky?
Getting lucky is one thing, but being able to finish when the perfect opportunity presents itself is another. Clinical finishing will be the difference between who eventually becomes the league’s top scorer and who falls by the wayside. The chart above displays the Top 13 players favored to become MLS’s top scorer stacked by Goals/90 minus xG/90, indicating who is finishing their shots when they are supposed to hammer it home and who is getting lucky with long shots that might happen to catch the defense and goalkeeper sleeping.
Surridge appears to be performing well above his xG/90, scoring over 40% more often than his xG would predict. Denis Bouanga, on the other hand, is well underperforming his xG, suggesting he should have scored almost 40% more goals than he currently has. His teammate, Son, is also well underperforming his xG, which makes me wonder just how good LAFC could be if these two can figure out how to finish their chances.
Towards the middle, we see a bunch of guys hitting the shots they are supposed to. No more, no less. This can be an indicator of precision. However, it could also be a sign that this player isn’t getting off enough shots to rack up a decent xG total. And that leads us to our next graph.
Who’s Taking Quality Shots?
Firing shots off at random points on the pitch is fine and dandy. However, shots filled to the brim with that all-important xG carry substantially more weight when it comes to figuring out whether a player actually has consistent scoring prowess.
Bouanga’s position on the graph above tells the tale of a player willing to spray the net wherever he finds himself with an unobstructed view of it. Letting loose just under 4.5 shots per game but averaging just above 0.1 xG per shot is a tough pill to swallow. Son’s stat line doesn’t get any better, but at least his low xG could be associated with his reduction in shots.
A few clicks northeast of Bouanga, we find Messi, who is peppering shots at around a 5.75 clip, but mustering less than 0.2 xG per shot. For comparison, Messi’s Golden Boot campaign last season saw him averaging 0.31 xG per shot. While a 0.1 drop may not seem huge, with the margins between scoring and not scoring being so thin, this reduction in quality could be an early indicator that this isn’t the GOAT’s year.
Looking further up the chart, you’ll see Surridge in what could be the sweet spot for the Nashville basher. The forgotten Premier League prospect is rifling a minimum of four shots a game this season with a killer 0.31 xG per shot, essentially taking a shot that should score a goal every 4th shot. Parlay this, which is currently revving 0.1 per shot higher than he finished with in 2025, with his 4.33 shots per game, which is also up from 3.27 last year, and Slamming Sam becomes a very intriguing Golden Boot candidate to back.
Even if Surridge’s hot start regresses back towards his previous means, he could still be tallying goals at a promising rate to take the scoring title. Factor in Nashville’s offense hammering teams without any remorse, and this bet becomes more attractive with every passing match.
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