With one month of games in the books, MLS conference battles continue to bloom across a talent-splattered field. While a handful of surprise teams appear to be brewing something special, the favorites continue to make early statements to assert their sportsbook-calculated status.
At this point in a new season, favorites still have that lovely plus symbol preceding their odds, making it a better time than any to jump on these lines if you believe these front-runners can go wire to wire. However, don’t overlook some of these spark plugs that are desperately trying to emulate what San Diego FC did last season, including San Diego FC!
Let’s dive a little deeper into which teams in each conference made moves towards the top and which ones took a little tumble downwards.
Western Conference (click here for the most updated odds)
After a week where they didn’t exactly look overly dominant against the worst team in the West, LAFC’s shutout victory was still enough to push them even further up the IWP rankings (a 6.7% boost to be exact), distancing themselves from the majority of a Western Conference field that seems to be struggling to find consistency. Despite St. Louis City owning the majority of possession, taking more shots on and off target, collecting a higher xG, and successfully connecting more with every type of pass, another strong second half, solidified by Mathieu Choiniére’s two goals, kept LAFC’s winning streak and conference title hopes, not only alive, but egging on those below them to try and dethrone this Western behemoth.
Another team out West that has looked consistently threatening over the past four weeks is the Vancouver Whitecaps. A six-goal, clean-sheet rout of Minnesota United certainly turned some heads over the weekend, catapulting Jesper Sørensen’s squad to the top of the standings on goal differential. However, at the end of the day, the ‘Caps end up losing ground to LAFC in implied likelihood to raise a conference banner despite the stronger weekend display.
Unlike last week, though, Vancouver sits alone in the penultimate spot, thanks to San Diego FC’s defensive struggles against FC Dallas. San Diego’s youthful backline took the brunt of the beating, allowing Dallas to tally up an open play xG of 1.69, lace eight shots on target, and create five big chances. Three goals for San Diego definitely skew the optics of this draw, but make no mistake, this was not a proud point earned. Two goals came off penalties, and Onni Valakari’s third was a deflected one and very well could have missed high. While this slight dip in IWP is warranted, things could slip even further if they are not careful, with feisty rosters embodied in Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes looming on their schedule
Speaking of Real Salt Lake, its 1.4% increase in IWP was the second-highest in the West this week, a boost that could have been loftier if its 23 shots and three big chances had been executed more cleanly. With two games against San Diego, one game at Seattle, and one at home against Inter Miami on the horizon, RSL will have plenty opportunites to prove that their upstart offense can also perform against more stout teams.
Not everything is rosy out west, as the LA Galaxy continues to ride the expectations slope down towards the pile-up at the bottom. The João Klauss experiment hasn’t had the shot in the arm the club was hoping, despite his fairly decent form to kick off the season in his new threads. Everything else around him seems to be falling apart without a real game plan on how to support the Brazilian’s outbursts of talent. Four league road games, plus a road match against Mount Pleasant in the CONCACAF Champions Cup, should batter this team’s resolve even further, pushing them deeper into the conference pit of demise.
Eastern Conference (click here for the most updated odds)
A midweek CONCACAF clash between Inter Miami and Nashville SC that ended in a hard-fought draw seemed to benefit both teams in the eyes of the oddsmakers. Nashville continues to look like a formidable foe in the East title race, looking quite comfortable against the Columbus Crew despite playing with a rotated squad. When Nashville’s stars inevitably came on after the backup bunch held down the fort for 65+ minutes, a win was in hand in the blink of an eye.
BJ Callahan understands the task at hand. Topple Miami. With every passing result, he seems to be building a squad that might be able to just do that.
NYCFC is another team trying to remind people back east that there is more to soccer than that pink team in South Florida. Three straight wins with a 9-1 goal differential will usually muster excitement within any fanbase, but the quality of opponents should bring some pause. Four consecutive weeks with an increase in IWP is the best the league has seen this season and a strong showing as hosts to Lionel Messi’s Miami scoring machine this weekend could very well make it five.
While NYCFC’s 1.8% IWP improvement was second best across the entire MLS after Matchweek 4, FC Cincinnati’s 3.8% drop in IWP was the worst seen all season by any team (that is, outside of Inter Miami’s 10% drop from 50% to 40% from the Preseason to after Matchweek 1, which I don’t really count). It’s interesting that NYCFC and FC Cincinnati both began the year with a roughly 10% chance to snatch the conference title away from Miami. Two teams heading in completely different directions. One with head of steam, the other steaming twoards an end.
Teams with Week-Over-Week Movement
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