MLS Championships aren’t won in Matchweek 1, but speculating on the significance of an opening week triumph or stumble is always a great practice in fun and futility. After an atrocious weekend that saw the Eastern Conference notch only 1 point in its 6 inter-conference battles, many are left to wonder whether the Western Conference is just outright stacked with more talent and built to dominate this year.
Although Lionel Messi and Inter Miami still hold the pole position in odds to win the Eastern Conference, the bookmakers are a little less certain after a rather vanilla showing against the best team from out west. Strong starts by both FC Cincinnati and Nashville SC increase their chances of taking the conference, signaling early dark horses worth keeping an eye on to challenge the reigning champs.
As this 34-week horse race towards crowning an Eastern Conference champion unfolds, each week we will take a closer look at the Top 10 teams most likely to make runs at the Conference and how they are moving up and down this list, switching between the conferences each week.
Let’s jump into this week’s Odds to Win the MLS Eastern Conference Top 10 Power Rankings and see where these teams stand.
odds to win the east | implied winning probability (IWP) | week-over-week change in IWP
1. Inter Miami +150 | ~40% | ↓10%
Heung-Min Son, Denis Bouanga, and David Martinez worked beautifully in tandem up front for LAFC, making Miami’s defense work endlessly for most of the night and, in the end, raising questions about whether the makeup of their current backline can handle multi-threat fronts moving forward. Messi hammered away at the chances that LAFC opened for him, but the spark on offense definitely was lacking. The best takeaway Miami can syphon from this loss is that Germán Berterame came inches from scoring on a perfectly placed cross by Facundo Mura, a player who will need to find more of these kinds of opportunities to really move the needle towards another conference championship. Until then, take the gift from the books and collect some of these plus money tickets while they are still being offered.
Next game: @ Orlando City | odds to win +118 | IWP ~ 45.9%
2. FC Cincinnati +700 | ~12.5% | ↑2.5%
After a stagnant first half where they could only produce 0.37 xG, FC Cincinnati took their halftime speech to heart, dominating the second half with a 1.79 xG, four big chances, and a 57/43 split in TOP. Kevin Denkey and Nick Hagglund eventually broke through with well-deserved goals, and the total could have been even worse if Denkey or Miles Robinson had converted on two huge missed chances. With Inter Miami’s somewhat expected slip-up against LAFC, this slight boost in IWP is probably mathematically deserved, yet, in reality, beating an Atlanta squad struggling to rebuild isn’t really showing the world anything they didn’t already know.
Next game: @ Minnesota United | odds to win +138 | IWP ~ 37.3%
3. Philadelphia Union +800 | ~11.1% | 0%
Despite a rather shocking loss to D.C. United, Philadelphia Union’s conference IWP managed to remain unscathed from their preseason mark. An early goal allowed, and an unfortunate red card really sank this ship. The U did save some dignity before the day was through, generating more xG and shots while dominating the ball for the rest of the game, albeit a man down. Yet, it wasn’t enough to save a rather forgettable opening day.
Next game: v. New York City FC | odds to win -115 | IWP ~ 53.5%
4. Nashville SC +800 | ~11.1% | ↑3.4%
A torrential attack kick-started the first half for Nashville SC, breaking through with several productive runs down the left-hand side, in turn winning a goal-scoring corner. While most eyes will turn to Sam Surridge’s two goals as the player to wash over with praise, don’t sleep on Warren Madirgal’s performance. His two goal contributions and two chances created could become a huge driving force for this offense with consistent creativity and service from the left. However, it’s easy for him to get lost amongst the brewing talent that Nashville has up front.
Next game: @ FC Dallas | odds to win +180 | IWP ~ 35.7%
5. New York City +900 | ~10% | 0%
Joao Klaus’s opening salvo for his new club, within two minutes of the first half whistle, highlighted what was otherwise an even match drenched with mediocrity. Neither team mustered more than 0.55 open-play xG in this one, with NYCFC’s only goal coming off Carlos Garces’s red card and Nicolás Fernández’s subsequent penalty kick. Five saves by Matt Freese, tho, should fire up the USMNT faithful, as their keeper continues to improve on his form as the World Cup nears.
Click image to see Carlos Garces 65’ red card + Nicolás Fernández PK Goal
Next game: @ Philadelphia Union | odds to win +331 | IWP ~ 23.2%
6. Columbus Crew +1200 | ~7.7% | 0%
Everything appeared to be going swimmingly for Columbus after Wessam Abou Ali corralled a bouncing ball, made a soft first touch to his left, then laced a banger through the bottom right of the net just six minutes into the contest. Several other solid chances followed in succession, but things quickly unraveled when a terrible clearance by Malte Amundsen led to Portland’s first goal, and then a defensive breakdown in transition left Anthony Alves in perfect position to send a screamer past Patrick Schulte for the lead in a matter of six minutes. A laser by Diego Rossi about 20 yards out evened things up as the first half came to a close. But in the end, only heartbreak was in order for the Crew, as four defenders could only watch in disbelief as a ball perfectly bounced to Ariel Lassiter, allowing him to hammer home a wide-open game-winner. On the upside, a hard-fought loss on the road against a non-conference foe didn’t dent their conference IWP one bit.
Next game: @ Sporting KC | odds to win -118 | IWP ~ 54.1%
7. New York RB +1200 | ~7.7% | ↑2.4%
RBNY’s offense sustained so much offensive pressure in the first half on Saturday that it is astonishing that they only finished the day with two goals. The Red Bulls absolutely dominated for the first 45, generating a 3.65 xG, firing 13 shots, scoring two goals, missing 3 other big chances, and playing overall front-footed football, as a 38-4 tilt in Touches in the opposition box shows. They let off the gas a bit in the second half, eventually surrendering a rather weak last-minute goal, flashing a brief moment of laziness that cost them a clean sheet.
Next game: v. New England Revolution | odds to win -115 | IWP ~ 53.5%
8. Orlando City +1600 | ~5.9% | ↓0.8%
Playing down two goals appeared to spark some life into the Lions, but it wasn’t enough to erase the damage done by their foggy first half. Fifteen shots and a 2.36 xG during the second half will salvage some respect with the bookies’ algorithms, but obviously not enough as Orlando’s conference IWP drops nearly an entire percent from last week. Some might translate coughing up two goals on a 4.64 overall xG as, things could have been worse if it weren’t for Maxime Crepeau and a promising defensive performance. Others might read this as a leaky bucket that can only hold so much water before the bottom completely crumbles.
Next game: v. Inter Miami | odds to win +209 | IWP ~ 32.4%
9. Charlotte +2000 | ~4.8% | ↓0.5%
In a match where St. Louis City seemed destined to take home all three points, a beautifully weighted ball from Wilfried Zaha to Pep Beil instead sent daggers of agony through the hearts of the home crowd with a stunning screamer to the low-far post. St. Louis didn’t let the goal steal their steam, winning the shot battle 7-1 for the remainder of the game, but couldn’t sneak home a winner. Charlotte looked a bit lost, with and without the ball, but ten saves from Kristijan Kahlina shouldn’t be overlooked. Although Charlotte should be quite happy escaping that adventure with a point, after that overall performance, they are also quite deserving of their dip in conference IWP.
Next game: @ LA Galaxy | odds to win +227 | IWP ~ 30.6%
10. Chicago Fire +2200 | ~4.3% | ↓ 0.4%
Chicago came out energized in their opener, making several strong runs down the right side that created decent chances during the first 20 minutes. The energy increased exponentially when Hugo Cuypers took advantage of poor communication between Mateusz Bogusz and Jack McGlynn around midfield, seamlessly stealing the ball and converting it into a goal. Unfortunately, the Fire’s second half looked like a completely different team. Despite winning the possession battle, Chicago only produced a 0.04 xG in the second half, firing off just one shot that was blocked a few feet inside the 18-yard box. A high-line defense, which was rather careless with the ball, ended up blowing its slim lead, raising questions about whether these aggressive tactics can hold up for Chicago over the long haul.
Next game: v. CF Montreal | odds to win -164 | IWP ~62.1%
The “It’s Still Early” Crew:
· Atlanta United FC +4000 | ~2.4% | ↓0.5
· DC United +5000 | ~2% | ↑0.5%
· Toronto +6600 | ~1.5% | 0%
· Montreal Impact +6600 | ~1.5% | ↓0.5%
· New England Revolution +6600 | ~1.5% | ↓0.5%
The Best and Worst Week-Over-Week Change
I’m Not Dead, I’m Getting Better
- Nashville SC +800 | ~11.1% | ↑3.4%
- FC Cincinnati +700 | ~12.5% | ↑2.5%
- New York RB +1200 | ~7.7% | ↑2.4%
- DC United +5000 | ~2% | ↑0.5%
‘Tis But a Scratch
- Inter Miami +150 | ~40% | ↓10%
- Orlando City +1600 | ~5.9% | ↓0.8%
- Atlanta United FC +4000 | ~2.4% | ↓0.5%
- Charlotte +2000 | ~4.8% | ↓0.5%
- Montreal Impact +6600 | ~1.5% | ↓0.5%
- New England Revolution +6600 | ~1.5% | ↓0.5%
- Chicago Fire +2200 | ~4.3% | ↓0.4%
***odds pulled from BetMGM on 2/23/26***
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