Matchweek 10 in the English Premier League puts us roughly a quarter of the way through the season, and it’s hard to ignore the many unexpected teams hovering around the European qualification spots. With Liverpool taking a very uncharacteristic nosedive and Arsenal seemingly invincible without the ball, those vying for the table’s pinnacle spot must navigate the topsy-turvy waves slamming them week after week. And the best part is, some top of the table regulars are starting to move in very unexpected directions. Let’s look at one bet I like for each EPL Matchweek 10 betting window.
Saturday, November 1st - 8:00 am (PDT)* window
Burnley/Arsenal – under 2.5 goals (+106)
Arsenal’s mind-boggling 0.20 goals against over its last 10 in all competitions makes the pessimist in me wonder just when this bubble will burst. Over those 10 games, the Gunners have kept 8 clean sheets and kept it under 2.5 goals 70% of the time. Burnley doesn’t exactly give away clean sheets cheaply (only held to zero goals twice this year against @ Tottenham and v. Liverpool), however, cracking Arsenal’s defensive code may not be in Scott Parker’s tactical manual.
Saturday, November 1st - 10:30 am (PDT) window
Micky Van de Ven over 0.5 Shots on Goal (+385)
Tottenham’s set-piece warrior, Micky van de Ven, notched a beautiful brace in his last time out. After being given a rest in Spurs’ EFL Cup defeat, he is going to be fired up to get the Hotspurs back on track. Dare I say, he actually gets more than one!
Saturday, November 1st - 1:00 pm (PDT) window
Liverpool/Aston Villa under 2.5 goals – (-105)
Liverpool and Aston Villa couldn’t be on more different tracks for this 25/26 EPL campaign. The way the Reds started their season, many thought they might never lose a game, but they have since lost six of their last seven games. Villa, on the other hand, started the season as if they might never score a goal. Yet, things are looking brighter lately, notching four straight league wins. With both these trains seemingly heading down different directions, meeting somewhere in the middle, like at a 1-1 draw, may be the most predictable finish.
Sunday, November 2nd - 7:00 am (PST) window
Newcastle 3-Way Moneyline (-164)
This might be a spot where, if your EPL picks on Saturday didn’t quite pan out, then maybe throw some make-up money on a side that is as close to a sure thing. West Ham’s current form has relegation written all over it, while Newcastle has strung together three straight wins in three different competitions over the last 10 days. Taking the Magpies straight up on the road, however, may give some punters fits. But this one could easily be done before half.
Sunday, November 2nd - 9:30 am (PST) window
Manchester City/Bournemouth – over 3.5 total goals (+186)
City’s defense has been stout, giving up 0.6 goals of their last ten games in all. But Bournemouth’s offense has also enjoyed the road as of late, scoring two or more goals in three of its last four away games. With Man City juggling lineups to deal with their competition overload, the Cherries could be in a prime spot to sneak one or even two past the Sky Blues’ defense. Add on the fact that feeding off the home crowd after three straight away games could pump City up enough to hammer home 2 of their own, this could be a sneaky barn-burner for us to profit off of.
Monday, November 3rd - 1:00 pm (PST) window
Sunderland/Everton – Both Teams to Score-No (-128)
Over the past 10 games, Sunderland and Everton have been involved in matches where both teams score only 40% of the time. While Sunderland’s defense has been the most impressive part of this squad during this early-season run, keeping their goals against to a paltry 0.8 since being promoted, Everton has conceded goals in seven straight games. However, hoping that Sunderland can hold the Blues to a third straight scoreless game might be a bit optimistic. I don’t think there will be more than two goals in this one, but fingers crossed all the goals come from the same side.
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*Ya, I’m on the West Coast of the US. Apologies.
