The last time Just One Bet set sail on an EPL betting voyage, the picks were finally hitting some fortuitous waters. The Matchweek 17 expedition brought home four wins and just two losses, posting an above .500 record for the first time in five tries.
After taking a month or so off to celebrate this (very) small win, I’m back with six picks to keep your weekends occupied. While articles failed to make it out during the holidays and beyond, bets were still placed with varying degrees of success.
Let’s hope we can pick up where we left off, churning out some winners and articles, to the delight of a few. Without wasting any more of your time, here are some picks oozing with value…well, I hope that’s value…
February 6th – 12:00 pm Window
Leeds United / Nottingham Forest o2.5 goals (+111)
Two teams well within the grasp of the dreaded drop zone should look to play on their front foot, ideally creating ample opportunities to counter up and down the channels. Dyche does seem to have inspired Forest, making them look less and less like league doormats with each passing week. While both teams are more than likely to score (currently a 57.1% likelihood according to the books), Forest’s momentum will push them toward seizing all three points.
February 7th – 4:30 am Window
Tottenham Hotspur o4.5 corners (+108)
Like a surfer floating in the ocean, these teams saddle a board of optimism, desperately hoping the swell below them can take them on a ride atop a massive, point-ridden wave. But surfers hate it when another bro steals their wave, and only one team will pop up on their boards once this one is over. This hard-fought battle will be won through a possessions-and-corners war. Man Utd tends to surrender 6+ corners when losing the possession battle, something they have done in three straight. Spurs have won the possession battle in 5 of the last 6, losing possession to City quite handily the last time out. Was this turn in trend for Spurs an opponent-variable issue, or just a blip in a different type of Frank-ball? Either way, with Spurs averaging just over 4 corners over their last 10 matches in all competitions and Man Utd allowing an average of 5.5 corners over that same span, the odds Spurs find a way to get five have to be a little better than 50/50.
February 7th – 7:00 am Window
Fulham / Everton o10 corners (-117)
Another corners bet in this window, and this one leans heavily on previous head-to-head stats. Everton and Fulham are apparently more than willing to give up corners whenever they face each other, hitting over 9.5 corners in four of their last 5 EPL tussles and averaging 12.5 total corners. Over their last 10 matches, giving their opponents cracks at these set pieces has also been a worrisome trend, each allowing 6.6 and 5.2 corners, respectively. Unfortunately, neither team showed any vigor in earning corners during that span – both averaged only 3.8 corners per game. Hopefully, equal possession of the ball equates to copious opportunities for these defenses to show what they apparently do best – give up corners.
February 7th – 9:30 am Window
Brentford Handicap +0.5 (-129)
This one is a bit bonkers since the home team has won this matchup in four straight, with three of those wins by two goals. Newcastle’s form reeks of something at the bottom of the kitchen bin, which makes me wonder if this one will be a much more subdued affair. The Bees’ upset of Villa last week does make this one even more enticing, especially when you pair it with Brentford’s xG in the three games previous. And, if you really want to take a swing, taking the Draw at +253 as a sprinkle add-on will make this betting window even more entertaining.
February 8th – 6:00 am Window
Brighton/Crystal Palace o4.0 cards (-128)
The away team in this matchup must really dislike the unhostpiable vibes emitting from their opponents. Over the last five head-to-heads, the road team is averaging 3 cards a game, collecting at least two cards in all five. Palace appears to be extra feisty over the last few, being shown at least 3 yellow cards in four of their last five overall. Hitting four seems like a given. With both teams scratching and clawing to find decent form, this one could get ugly.
February 8th – 8:30 am Window
Erling Haaland To Score A Goal (-110)
It has been over a month since Haaland last hammered home a goal in an EPL match against Brighton in January – a trend that cannot stand the test of time. While his recent form and the fact that he seems to struggle at Anfield should push these odds into plus-money, finding Haaland at this price is also not that common. These teams still believe a title chase is occurring and will look to show that scoring is not a foreign concept to them. With Marmoush looking to steal as much playing time as possible, Haaland will also need to remind people how fluent he is in this love language.
English Premier League Picks (W-L-D)
· Matchweek 9: 2-4
· Matchweek 10: 3-3
· Matchweek 11: 2-3-1
· Matchweek 12: 2-2-2
· Matchweek 16: 3-3
· Matchweek 17: 4-2
Overall Record: 16-17-3
UEFA Champions League Picks
· Round 3: 1-3
· Round 4: 1-3
· Round 5: 2-2
· Round 6: 3-0-1
Overall Record: 7-8-1
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