The International Break often feels like a sun-scorched desert where club soccer fanatics wander, hopelessly searching for any trace of the life source we need to survive. Mirages of organized soccer trick us into believing that a lifeline is a mere channel flip away. Yet, the friendlies, tournaments, and closed-door inter-squad practices are merely an illusion of the product we all truly want.
The English Premier League brings its beautiful face back this weekend, and fans can rejoice that an International Break won’t deplete our world of its natural resources until March 2026! So let’s drink from the glorious EPL fountain and find a few good wagers for each betting window we get to enjoy this weekend.
November 22nd – 4:30 am Window
Burnley/Chelsea – Both Teams to Score-Yes (-118)
Burnley doesn’t beat Chelsea often, but in its 16 duels with the Blues, it has only been held scoreless 6 times. Arsenal, Liverpool, and Tottenham are the only teams to keep the Clarets off the scoreboard this season, but Chelsea’s defense is right in line with its Big Six brethren, keeping it clean in three of its last four EPL matches.
Most gamblers tend to shy away from a streak like that, but this doesn’t feel like a spot where Chelsea’s defense stays pristine. Coming out of an International Break can often intertwine rust with rest. Despite lacking any sense of creativity on offense, riding a league’s worst 8.30 xG, Burnley’s side will likely benefit from fewer squad members leaving for International duty, giving their odds of sliding a goal past Robert Sanchez a gentle boost. However, will Burnley have prepared enough to catch Maresca’s dominant roster by surprise?
November 22nd – 7:00 am Window
Crystal Palace – 3-Way Moneyline (-104)
Unrelentingly trouncing the Wolves has become the status quo for the 25/26 EPL season. James Collin stumbled into a managerial starting situation that’s been simulated millions of times by FM players. Still, his blah brigade doesn’t quite have the wherewithal to succeed in a clawback-from-regulation type season. This spot against Crystal Palace isn’t really favorable for those rooting on the Wolves to stare death in the face and laugh.
Palace’s suffocating defense, currently riding three straight shutouts, won’t make it any easier on the Old Gold. With Palace struggling recently on the road in league play, losing their last two to Arsenal and Everton, an attainable draw by the Wolves could actually be considered a massive victory for their side. Unfortunately, the Eagles’ two road wins this season were against West Ham and Villa, one team closer to the Wolves’ lackluster offense and the other akin to their ragged defense. This game is much more likely to end similarly to those, with Palace on top.
November 22nd – 9:30 am Window
Newcastle/Manchester City – Total Goals Over 3 (+115)
In Manchester City’s last eight games at St. James’ Park, they have been held to one goal or less only twice. The goals are coming pretty consistently for City, scoring three or more in four straight over all competitions, and netting at least two goals in eight of their last 10. While surpassing three total goals almost seems like a given, the -140 price doesn’t pay out enough for those worried about the Citizens putting up a dud.
The Magpies have been giving up goals consistently in October, but keep tallying goals of their own as well. Four straight games for Newcastle have resulted in over 2.5 goals, with the last two over 3.5! These types of totals usually solicit feelings of going the other way. Yet, here we are. For some reason, this one has four written all over it, whether it’s 2-2 or 4-0.
November 23rd – 6:00 am Window
Leeds – Team Total Goals Over 1.0 (-120)
Making bets by analyzing a team’s goals scored and how they correlate with their xG is a fun way to gray your hair faster. I’ll thank an article by MartinOnData for this bet, as his recent piece reminded me that these trends exist and need to be taken advantage of periodically.
Outside of two outlier games against the Wolves and West Ham, Leeds habitually falls short of the expectations established by its xG, averaging only 1.0 goals over its last 10 games despite averaging 1.48 xG in those games. There comes a time when goals and expected goals need to start heading in opposite directions. However, opportunities to put a notch on the board are going to be fewer and further between with an overly daunting schedule starring the Peacocks in the craw (@ MCI, v. CHE, v. LIV). I fully expect Leeds to tally at least one goal this weekend. After that, it’s all just wishful entertainment whether they hit another.
November 23rd – 8:30 am Window
Arsenal/Tottenham – Both Teams To Score-Yes (+102)
When played at the Emirates, the Gunners can practically count on two things from the North London Derby: at least two goals and at least one point. Arsenal, currently scoring a minimum of two goals in eight straight NLDs, also owns a sickening (from a Spurs perspective) record of 9-5-1 on home grass in this intercity grudge match.
How can gamblers take advantage of this, you ask? By hoping that an injured Gabriel and the fact that the Spurs have only been shutout in two EPL games this season is enough to carry this plus money wager. As a Spurs fan, pessimism is ingrained in me. While I think a win may be WAY too much to ask out of this one, I think I’ll be happy if they can take an early one-nil lead to fill me with that painful emotion known as hope.
November 24th – 12:00 pm Window
Manchester United – 3-Way Moneyline (-132)
Like a college dropout forever lounging on his uncle’s garage couch, Everton’s offense can’t seem to get its life together when they visit Old Trafford. In the last three road bouts versus Man United, the Toffees appeared befuddled on offense, failing to score in all three and only reaching an xG over 1.0 in one.
Last time out against Tottenham, the xG-hungry Red Devils failed to exceed 1.0 in xG for the first time all season. But don’t worry about that little guy, because Everton doesn’t really like stifling other people’s creativity, bro…
This season in EPL play, Everton has only kept the anemic Spurs and slow-starting Villa under 1.0 in xGA. Which can only mean Man United will get their chances, capitalize on at least two of them, and get this man one step closer to a much-needed haircut.
