> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # MLS Odds to Win Eastern Conference Top 10 Power Rankings – Matchweek 3 - URL: https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/mls-odds-to-win-eastern-conference/ - Published: 2026-03-11T17:21:04.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-12T00:06:02.000Z - Author: Jason Figueiredo - Tags: Betting ![](https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/content/images/2026/09/https-3a-2f-2fsubstack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-2fpublic--Dc0NC5wbmc.png) Three weeks into the MLS season, and there is already a new team owning the penultimate spot in BetMGM’s Odds to Win the Eastern Conference. While it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Inter Miami is knocked off the top spot, the jostling among the teams vying to be the maid of honor to Messi could yield varying value as the season unfolds. Starting the season perfectly has helped jolt both NYCFC and Nashville SC to the top of the table, each with a fairly respectable goal differential to add to their early gloss. It is still way too soon to tell how this early success will translate into sustained pressure on the reigning champs. But for the time being, the gap in IWP is so large that now is a better time than any to jump on one of these flyers that you might think has a solid chance to make a late-season dash for the conference crown. Let’s take a look at this week’s power rankings and how teams are trending week over week in IWP since the Preseason. *odds to win the east | implied winning probability (IWP) | week-over-week change in IWP* --- ### 1\. Inter Miami +150 | \~40% | 0% Despite losing the xG and total shots battles, Inter Miami leaned heavily on two early goals by **Rodrigo De Paul** and **Lionel Messi** to eventually collect all three points. In the second half, Miami only fired off two shots, one blocked and one sailing way over the crossbar. Constantly regaining and maintaining ownership of the ball elevated Miami to the win. However, D.C. United showed that there are holes in this defense that perhaps a better offense can expose. ![A football player kicking a ball on a field AI-generated content may be incorrect.](https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/content/images/2026/09/https-3a-2f-2fsubstack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-2fpublic--ExMDAucG5n.jpg "A football player kicking a ball on a field AI-generated content may be incorrect.") **De Paul corrals the ball, setting up his 17’ goal – Click image to be redirected to YouTube to watch the video highlight* *Next game: @ Charlotte | odds to win +102 | IWP \~ 49.5%* --- ### 2\. Nashville SC +600 | \~14.3% | ↑3.2% Nashville experienced the biggest week-over-week boost in IWP, shooting up to second in the bookmaker’s rankings after a pretty convincing win over Minnesota. Not only did **Sam Surridge** produce another brace, but newly-acquired **Cristian Espinoza** also scored his first goal for Nashville, pushing this offense to the finish line. Minnesota wasn’t truly in this game. After Surridge scored his second goal two minutes after halftime, Nashville seemed content to park the bus, allowing Minnesota to deceptively collect a good amount of offensive stats. ![A football player in a yellow jersey AI-generated content may be incorrect.](https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/content/images/2026/09/https-3a-2f-2fsubstack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-2fpublic--ExMzIucG5n.jpg "A football player in a yellow jersey AI-generated content may be incorrect.") **Surridge celebrating his second goal - Click image to be redirected to YouTube to watch the video highlight* *Next game: v. @ Columbus Crew | odds to win +253 | IWP \~ 28.3%* --- ### 3\. New York City +700 | \~12.5% | ↑1.4% A lapse in judgment by **Maxime Crépeau** turned this contest on its head after the 18’ when the Canadian goaltender decided to charge a ball floating towards the top of the 18-yard box instead of letting it come to him. Sure, NYCFC was in hot pursuit of the ball, but this aggressiveness forced Crépeau to use his hands to redirect the ball just as he stepped out of the box, leaving Orlando without their top goaltender, a man on the field, and eventually dooming them in the game. NYCFC was probably going to win this game even if both sides had 11 players, but playing a man down exacerbated Orlando’s current weaknesses. Five goals from four different players, plus a clean sheet, should warrant this rather large bump in IWP. ![A group of people playing football AI-generated content may be incorrect.](https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/content/images/2026/09/https-3a-2f-2fsubstack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-2fpublic--EwNjYucG5n.jpg "A group of people playing football AI-generated content may be incorrect.") **Crépeau playing the ball with his hands outside of the 18-yard box for a red card - Click image to be redirected to YouTube to watch the video highlight* *Next game: v. Colorad Rapids | odds to win -172 | IWP \~ 63.3%* --- ### 4\. FC Cincinnati +800 | \~11.1% | ↓1.4% Consecutive losses to teams that pundits believed weren’t as good can be attributed to FC Cincinnati’s slight dip in IWP this week. After losing to Minnesota in Matchweek 2, Cincinnati struggled again to find any identity on offense, failing to score or create any big chances on 14 total shots against Toronto. Saying this offense is stagnant without Evander is a huge understatement. Although they won the possession battle in the second half, they never found the back of the net. A beautiful pass from **Richie Laryea** to **Dániel Sallói** that found its way past four Cincinnati defenders ended up being the dagger that killed them in the 86’. ![A football player kneeling on a field AI-generated content may be incorrect.](https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/content/images/2026/09/https-3a-2f-2fsubstack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-2fpublic--EwODYucG5n.jpg "A football player kneeling on a field AI-generated content may be incorrect.") **Sallói’s 86’ goal putting Toronto on top for good - Click image to be redirected to YouTube to watch the video highlight* *Next game: @ New England Revolution | odds to win +173 | IWP \~ 36.6%* --- ### 5\. Columbus Crew +1200 | \~7.7% | 0% A game where a barrage of goals was supposedly expected ended in a nil-nil draw. Probably because I took the over. **Taha Habroune** had the best chance of bringing home a win for either team, missing from just atop the six-yard box during a chaotic sequence that ended with a nice save by winger **Dylan Borso**. Columbus has yet to show that it can really threaten on offense, making this stagnant IWP understandable for the time being. ![A group of football players on a field AI-generated content may be incorrect.](https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/content/images/2026/09/https-3a-2f-2fsubstack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-2fpublic--EwOTAucG5n.jpg "A group of football players on a field AI-generated content may be incorrect.") **Habourne’s 51’ chance from just above the penalty box - Click image to be redirected to YouTube to watch the video highlight* *Next game: v. Nashville SC | odds to win -102 | IWP \~ 50.5%* --- ### 6\. Philadelphia Union +1200 | \~7.7% | ↓2.3% Philadelphia sank the most in conference IWP since last week, and their blah showing against a revitalized San Jose Earthquakes left many wondering whether this is something more than early-season growing pains. **Nathan Harriel**’s header in the 46’ off a set piece produced the only real chance that they saw, on a night where they could only complete 69% of their passes. Another poor showing on Tuesday in the CONCACAF Champions Cup should raise even further concerns. ![A group of people playing football AI-generated content may be incorrect.](https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/content/images/2026/09/https-3a-2f-2fsubstack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-2fpublic--E2NDIucG5n.jpg "A group of people playing football AI-generated content may be incorrect.") **Harriel leans in for a header stopped by Daniel - Click image to be redirected to YouTube to watch the video highlight* *Next game: @ Atlanta United FC | odds to win +153 | IWP \~ 39.5%* --- ### 7\. New York RB +1400 | \~6.7% | ↓1% A little air in NYRB’s balloon escaped last weekend after suffering a rather embarrassing three-goal loss at the hands of a team that many considered to be a Wooden Spoon contender entering this match. I kinda think Montreal still is, despite their slight increase in IWP this week. Another unassuming Canadian team is on the docket for NYRB, providing this young squad with a great test of their bounce-back abilities. *Next game: @ Toronto | odds to win +158 | IWP \~ 38.8%* --- ### 8\. Charlotte +2000 | \~4.8% | ↑0.9% An 18’ red card by **Guilherme Biro** completely changed the flow of this game, allowing Charlotte to absolutely dominate, especially in the second half. Just look at these stats for the last 45! Anytime you can unleash 18 shots, accumulate 3 big chances, and completely own possession, a one percent jump in IWP is probably warranted. Whether or not this could have been accomplished without Biro’s mistake is questionable. ![A screenshot of a sports game AI-generated content may be incorrect.](https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/content/images/2026/09/https-3a-2f-2fsubstack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-2fpublic--TA5OC5wbmc.png "A screenshot of a sports game AI-generated content may be incorrect.") **Second Half Stats (FotMob)* ![](https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/content/images/2026/09/https-3a-2f-2fsubstack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-2fpublic--MjYyLnBuZw.png) **Biro’s 18’ red card box - Click image to be redirected to YouTube to watch the video highlight* *Next game: v. Inter Miami | odds to win +264 | IWP \~ 27.5%* --- ### 9\. Chicago Fire +2500 | \~3.8% | 0% As mentioned above, Borso not only stopped Columbus’s best chance at scoring, but he also provided a header that might have been the best shot on goal Chicago had all game. At the end of the day, it was **Chris Brady** who made the biggest difference for Chicago and the game as a whole. The American goalkeeper earned the highest FotMob rating in this match after making just four saves, two on the play mentioned above. Back-to-back clean sheets for Chicago provide hope for this defense, but an offense identity has yet to appear, making it difficult to really gauge the Fire’s true potential. ![A group of people playing football AI-generated content may be incorrect.](https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/content/images/2026/09/https-3a-2f-2fsubstack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-2fpublic--ExMDgucG5n.jpg "A group of people playing football AI-generated content may be incorrect.") **Borso’s 71’ header steered just wide by Patrick Schulte - Click image to be redirected to YouTube to watch the video highlight* *Next game: v. D.C. United | odds to win -154 | IWP \~ 60.6%* --- ### 10\. Toronto +3300 | \~2.9% | ↑1.7% Whether it’s because they officially announced that USMNT forward Josh Sargent has joined the team or just because they didn’t look completely inept against a supposedly stronger FC Cincinnati squad, a tide is apparently turning in the Great White North, and Toronto appears to be catching a ride on the wave. Don’t get your wires crossed, tho. This win wasn’t pretty, losing the possession and xG battles quite handily. However, eight of their 11 shots came from inside the box, suggesting opportunities are being created, and perhaps Sargent Slaughter will be the lethal finisher they desperately need. *Next game: v. New York Red Bull | odds to win +179 | IWP \~ 35.8%* --- #### The “We Ain’t Leavin’ ‘til We’re Heavin’” Bunch: 11\. Atlanta United FC +5000 | \~2% | ↓0.5%; 12\. DC United +5000 | \~2% | ↓0.5%; 13\. Orlando City +5000 | \~2% | ↓1.9%; 14\. Montreal Impact +6000 | \~1.6% | ↑0.4%; 15\. New England Revolution +6600 | \~1.5% | 0% --- #### Week-Over-Week Conference IWP Trends ![A graph with lines and numbers AI-generated content may be incorrect.](https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/content/images/2026/09/https-3a-2f-2fsubstack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-2fpublic--DcxMi5wbmc.png "A graph with lines and numbers AI-generated content may be incorrect.") Top 5 Teams Favored to Win the MLS Eastern Conference ![A graph of different colored lines AI-generated content may be incorrect.](https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/content/images/2026/09/https-3a-2f-2fsubstack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-2fpublic--DkzOC5wbmc.png "A graph of different colored lines AI-generated content may be incorrect.") Trends for all Eastern Conference teams except Inter Miami for a closer look --- #### This Week’s Biggest Movers ##### Moving On Up East: 1. Nashville SC +600 | \~14.3% | ↑3.2% 2. Toronto +3300 | \~2.9% | ↑1.7% 3. New York City +700 | \~12.5% | ↑1.4% 4. Charlotte +2000 | \~4.8% | ↑0.9% 5. Montreal Impact +6000 | \~1.6% | ↑0.4% West: 1. SJ Earthquakes +2000 | \~4.8% | ↑1.8% 2. San Diego +400 | \~20% | ↑1.8% 3. Vancouver Whitecaps +400 | \~20% |↑1.8% 4. Colorado Rapids +2800 | \~3.4% | ↑1.5% 5. Real Salt Lake +3300 | \~2.9% | ↑0.5% ##### Sliding Down East: 1. Philadelphia Union +1200 | \~7.7% | ↓2.3% 2. Orlando City +5000 | \~2% | ↓1.9% 3. FC Cincinnati +800 | \~11.1% | ↓1.4% 4. New York RB +1400 | \~6.7% | ↓1% 5. Atlanta United FC +5000 | \~2% | ↓0.5% 6. DC United +5000 | \~2% | ↓0.5% West: 1. Portland Timbers +3300 | \~2.9% | ↓1.8% 2. FC Dallas +2800 | \~3.4% | ↓1.3% 3. Minnesota United +2800 | \~3.4% | ↓1.3% 4. Austin +2500 | \~3.8% | ↓0.9% 5. LA Galaxy +1000 | \~9.1% | ↓0.9% 6. Houston Dynamo +1800 | \~5.3% | ↓0.6% 7. Sporting KC +10000 | \~1% | ↓0.2% 8. St. Louis City +10000 | \~1% | ↓0.2% \*\*\*odds pulled from [BetMGM](https://www.co.betmgm.com/en/sports/events/mls-2026-eastern-conference-winner-regular-seaso-2:7749137'?ref=pitchsidedocket.com) on 3/9/26\*\*\* Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.