> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # English Premier League Matchweek 17 - URL: https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/english-premier-league-matchweek-87b/ - Published: 2025-12-19T18:15:04.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-12T00:06:04.000Z - Description: One pick for each EPL betting window! - Author: Jason Figueiredo - Tags: Betting Almost mid-way through the season, and my form is desperately seeking an above .500 week. Perhaps the jolly old elf from the northern parts can send me an early Christmas gift by sprinkling a little magic on this week’s *Just One Bet* English Premier League newsletter. Maybe I’ll pay him a visit! Like most of my wishes to the big guy, sports gambling desires probably fall on deaf ears. But, whether you are chilling on the couch or being dragged to some mall to do some last-minute shopping, throwing some action during every EPL betting window over the weekend will make your holiday that much more jollier. Let’s see if we can make these six windows the most profitable yet! (A task that shouldn’t be too hard to beat considering this newsletter’s overall record.) ## **December 20th** – *4:30 am Window* ### *Newcastle/Chelsea – Total Goals over 3.0 (+118)* This is one of those bets where I can’t envision this scoreline being anything other than 2-1\. Who’s winning in this imaginary playground is too blurry to see. But when you take the over, who cares? The over 2.5 line at -143 is almost exactly what my algorithm has it at, but I am much more tempted to see if this one can actually reach four. I know, I had my issues with the number four last week, with only a handful of my “four” predictions actually happening. The numbers, mine and the books, indicate a 59.3% chance that the total between the Magpies and the Blues will be at least 3\. My formula gives it only a 22.9% chance of landing exactly on 3, which is also close to the +317 the books are floating around. A 38.2% chance of winning, saddled next to a 39.7% chance of losing, doesn’t necessarily seem all that great. However, sometimes playing to push pays off in the end. --- ## **December 20th** – *7:00 am Window* ### *Manchester City / West Ham United – Total Corners over 10.5 (-130)* City’s last four games, three of which were on the road, produced meager corner results, averaging only 3.25 corners in those matches. In the six games before that, five of which were at home, City averaged 7.67 corners per game, surpassing the 10.5 total corners in four of those games. West Ham is also quite fond of giving up corners on the road, conceding an average of 7.2 in their past five away matches. To add on to this, the Hammers have reached 11 or more total corners in seven of their last 10 games. Despite all of the nonsense regarding Pep’s change in formation, Man City will own the majority of possession in this game and may even reach double digits in corners all by themselves. --- ## **December 20th** – *9:30 am Window* ### *Tottenham Hotspur / Liverpool – Total Goals over 3.5 (+167)* I just finished writing about how poorly Spurs defend against [long-distance shots](https://thehotspurhovel.substack.com/p/spurs-growing-problem-with-conceding), and I have a feeling this may be another game where this weakness will be exploited. Over their last five games, the Reds have fired 59.1% of their shots from 17 yards or farther. Although they only made one of those 42, they aren’t scared to unleash a long-range shot, and Tottenham isn’t afraid to let them. In addition, Liverpool has scored at least two goals in four of its last five visits to North London to play Tottenham Hotspur. Despite achieving that feat in only four of its last 10 matches, Liverpool will have several opportunities to pepper Vicario and will likely capitalize on at least a few. The last time Spurs failed to score in back-to-back matches was last May against Palace and Villa, and this feels like a spot where Frank’s aloof footballers stumble and fail to generate an xG over 0.03\. But this Liverpool crew seems more susceptible to mistakes than in the past, making me believe that Spurs will get at least one to make my Saturday not as terrible. --- ## **December 20th** – *12:30 pm Window* ### *Leeds United – Corners Handicap -0.5 (-111)* Leeds are an impressive 5-2-1 in the battle for most corners at home since being promoted. It may be the one constant that this squad has going for them and the one that bettors should keep an eye on every weekend. Leeds is quite staunch when protecting the backline from corners, only allowing 3.3 corners per game over its last 10 and conceding only 3.12 corners this season at home. Crystal Palace doesn’t give up or win many corners either, making it seem like this game will take place mainly in the middle third. Either way, I think Leeds continuing to be a corners king of sorts makes this the best bet of the window and one that should be neck-and-neck until the 90th minute. --- ## **December 21st** – *8:30 pm Window* ### *Aston Villa – 3-Way Moneyline (+110)* The one-sidedness of this duel is quite eye-popping, especially if you are going to ride with me on this pick. Manchester United owns Villa, winning 17 of their 24 EPL match-ups. That’s not all. The Red Devils are also riding a five-game unbeaten streak against the Lions, giving you even more reasons to consider this wager a clear stay-away. Here’s the thing. United won’t have Mbuemo (International Duty) or Casemiro (Red Card), who combined account for 12 of the team’s 57 goal contributions. Without their second and third goal contributors playing, it could be slog for Man U to get things going. This feels like a game where Villa will field a much stronger side, especially with these two key role players absent for United. This match’s scary history won’t be enough to get in the way of Villa continuing an already unbelievable win streak. --- ## **December 22nd** – *12:00 pm Window* ### *Fulham – Draw No Bet (-136)* The current form of both teams will make you turn your head as if you just smelled milk set to expire today. It’s most likely fine, but your mind is telling you something is off, and you should probably stay away. Coming out of Craven Cottage with any points is something Nottingham Forest has yet to do when the match-up is a Premier League fixture. Forest performed better on these grounds in the Championship, winning their last two games here in 2019 and 2022\. Oddly enough, this exact fixture has never ended in a draw. Fulham’s form at home in this fixture is enough for me to back them, however tentative it may be. In all honesty, the +229 for the draw is almost just as tempting and would make this Monday just as interesting! ![](https://www.pitchsidedocket.com/content/images/2026/09/https-3a-2f-2fsubstack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-2fpublic--I3MTgucG5n.png) *English Premier League Picks (W-L-D)* · Matchweek 9: [2-4](https://theinvertedfig.substack.com/p/english-premier-league-matchweek) · Matchweek 10: [3-3](https://theinvertedfig.substack.com/p/english-premier-league-matchweek-218) · Matchweek 11: [2-3-1](https://theinvertedfig.substack.com/p/english-premier-league-matchweek-48b) · Matchweek 12: [2-2-2](https://theinvertedfig.substack.com/p/english-premier-league-matchweek-02a) · Matchweek 16: [3-3](https://theinvertedfig.substack.com/p/english-premier-league-matchweek-ac3) *Overall Record: 12-15-3* *UEFA Champions League Picks* · Round 3: [1-3](https://theinvertedfig.substack.com/p/just-one-bet-uefa-champions-league) · Round 4: [1-3](https://theinvertedfig.substack.com/p/uefa-champions-league-round-4-with) · Round 5: [2-2](https://theinvertedfig.substack.com/p/uefa-champions-league-round-5) · Round 6: [3-0-1](https://substack.com/home/post/p-181113216?ref=pitchsidedocket.com) *Overall Record: 7-8-1* Thanks for reading Just One Bet! 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