The North London Derby. That’s all you really have to say. No other sequence of words can evoke the emotions of hate, joy, and fear so deeply within the souls of both Spurs and Arsenal fans. Unfortunately for the Lilywhites, the recent one-sidedness of this affair, as well as the off-season signing of a player in Tottenham’s grasp, also conjures fiery feelings of frustration and fury. Then, there’s the delightfully dreadful thoughts of being left in the dust by our arch-rival without any real plan of catching up to them on the road ahead.
Thomas Frank’s first crack at the NLD will be highly scrutinized, but thanks to Spurs’ abysmal record over their last five at the Emirates Stadium (0-1-4), there will be some slack given to his leash even if he fails to collect any points after 90. The amount of slack, though, will significantly depend on whether Frank’s offensive plan can emerge from its stagnant cocoon and finally show signs of palpable life against this cross-town nemesis.
Success is possible in this week’s version of the NLD for Tottenham, but luck and preparation will require proper planning to cross this intersection accordingly. Here are a handful of players and matchups in each third of the field that I’ll be keeping an eye on, hoping all the intangibles fall our way.
Attacking Third
The biggest news from the International Break that raised an eyebrow for most Spurs fans was Gabriel’s injury in Brazil’s friendly against Senegal. An enormous blow to the Gunners’ backfield, but talks of Piero Hincapié pairing up with William Saliba down the center against Tottenham have many folks buzzing. The 23-year-old Ecuadorian posted two massive Sofascore ratings during the break, scoring 8.0 against New Zealand and 7.7 against Canada. Against New Zealand, he flashed his ball-handling skills a bit, touching the ball 107 times, making 62% of his long-ball passes, and completing 86% of his overall passes. His tackling ability will also be an issue if he starts, especially since Spurs have problems creating any presence in the middle channel of this third.
In addition to Gabriel’s absence, there have been reports that Riccardo Calafiori may also miss this NLD due to a lack of sharpness and load management. Sofascore currently has Myles Lewis-Skelly penciled in at LB, which may be an area for Mohammed Kudus, or Frank’s right forward of the moment, to exploit.
The news that Kolo Muani has been training and will most likely be able to play with a mask creates some positivity that Spurs will put forth some semblance of an offensive attack, especially if Arsenal’s regular starters at LB and LCB are absent. However, any speculation that Muani is the missing key that will both unlock Tottenham’s sluggish offense and also crack the lock of Arsenal’s unrelenting defense is probably misplaced.
On the right side for Arteta, Jurrien Timber will also be a tough nut to crack, but his proclivity to push up with the attack may open up space for Xavi Simons, or hopefully Wilson Odobert to work some magic down this channel. If cracks are going to present themselves, it will be here more often than not.
Tottenham’s offense won’t have a lot of time to create in this third, and it should be hard to watch throughout the match. However, an early goal by any of our highly paid summer signings would do wonders in setting the tone for this match.
Match-Up to Watch: Kudus v. Lewis-Skelly
Middle Third
As of this writing, Sofascore predicts that Rodrigo Bentancur, Joao Palhinha, and Pape Sarr will start in the midfield for Frank against Arsenal’s combination of Declan Rice, Martin Zubimendi, and Eberechi Eze. The nature of these threesomes seems like polar opposites at first glance. Spurs’ midfield could be compared to a castle gate: formidable in defense despite some gaps, providing some offensive support, but it won’t keep defenders up at night. Arsenal’s group of midfielding swashbucklers, on the other hand, seems more like a fortified pirate ship with multiple cannons on the side, helping out the defense when they get too deep, but also using the flanks to break out and back up the offense after successful duels.
The defensive nature of Palhinha and Bentancur should help stifle some of Rice and Eze’s creativity. However, when Timber overlaps and Zubimendi is everywhere and nowhere at once, Spurs’ midfield could be running in circles trying to mark up. Luckily for Tottenham, these midfielders have possibly the best center-back pairing in the English Premier League to lean on when breakdowns inevitably occur.
The battles won and lost in this third will definitely determine the outcome of this match and will be by far the most fascinating to watch. Unfortunately, these two fighters don’t appear to be in the same weight class. By average Sofascore alone, Arsenal clearly surpasses the talent of Tottenham’s expected midfield crew, and the field should significantly tilt in one direction because of it.
Match-Up to Watch: Palhinha v. Zubimendi
Defensive Third
With two of the world’s best center-backs anchoring their defensive third, along with a Top 5 EPL goaltender to boot, breaking down Tottenham’s defense has not been an easy task for any team. The top two teams in EPL xG this season (Chelsea, 20.7 & Man City, 19.5) were held to a combined one goal in their games against the Lilywhites. Arsenal, ranking third in that category, should experience similar frustration trying to get shots past defenders this weekend. It’s hard not to mention that luck was a fifth defender for Tottenham against City and Chelsea, as both teams missed many wide-open opportunities, slightly overrating the defense’s actual success against this caliber of opponent. But at the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter how the ball stays out, as long as it stays out.
The most intriguing matchup to watch in this third will be Bukayo Saka versus whoever Frank decides to start at left back. Between Djed Spence and Destiny Udogie, Spence is more likely to get the nod, as his speed and defensive ability are still slightly greater than Udogie’s. But Saka’s silkiness with the ball and quickness off of it should give either of them migraines for the entire night. Pedro Porro, whose defense can be pretty unpredictable, will also have his hands full with Leondro Trossard coming down the left flank, but maybe not to the same degree.
Expect Arsenal to vary their attack against Spurs across all three channels, looking to exploit any potential weaknesses in Tottenham’s sometimes too-defensive-minded back line. Minimizing mistakes in this third will go a long way for the Hotspur, but playing too carefully could end up stifling breakout chances when they arise.
If Spurs have any chance of coming out of the North London Derby with a point, it will have to start with their defense. However, it’s going to take nothing short of a miracle for them to escape with all three. While an unexpected offensive performance from Muani, Simons, and/or Kudus could do the trick, it’s probably a better idea not to set your expectations too high.
Match-Up to Watch: Spence v. Saka
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